MANNING: Does Biden deserve the credit for the job gains?



By Rick Manning

The White House Facebook page sang “3,000,000 jobs created since President Biden took office” in response to the Labor Department’s employment status report on July 2.

The answer is no.

Three million jobs in the past five months is an impressive number, but it is in line with the average number of jobs recovered going back to July 2020, when Republican governors began to reopen their states. As the graph above shows, the economic shutdown began in March 2020 with the major crash recorded in April with around 22.1 million jobs lost in just two months before.

As a reminder, Americans for Limited Government were among the first to urge Trump White House to push for the reopening in March and April by sending over a hundred videos of small businesses on the verge of bankruptcy to White House economic decision makers. and providing feedback from key small business executives on the disastrous impacts of the closures. It was the courageous decisions of the Trump White House and states led by Republican governors that played down the damage.

As the economy slowly rolled around, the number of restored jobs jumped nearly 10 million from May to July and continued to average 525,000 monthly growth from August to January 2021. Since Biden took over Its functions, the average gain of jobs per month was just over 600,000 – again – a good number on the surface.

But here’s the sad truth – the six largest states by population with Democratic governors who voted for Biden made up 31% of the nation’s population, but had 39.4% of the February-May employment upturn (the state data for June is not yet available.)

Conversely, the six largest states in terms of population with Republican governors who voted for Trump accounted for 25% of the country’s population, but had 14.8% of the employment recovery.

Additionally, the top six Democratic states saw an average drop in their unemployment rate of 0.75%, while the top six GOP states saw an average drop in their unemployment rate of 0.15%.

The good news for the GOP states except Ohio, which were relatively open compared to their Democratic peers, is that each of their unemployment rates were significantly below the national average in January and May 2021. Conversely, Democratic-led states suffered the worst employment recovery overall.

All of this proves that President Biden’s claim to have “created” 3 million jobs is specious. The facts show that these jobs have been disproportionately clawed back in states that have engaged in draconian closures. These closings were politically motivated and not science driven, and it would be a wonder if they weren’t taking jobs back at a rapid rate now that it is politically advantageous to have economic growth.

Biden had little or nothing to do with job growth that was artificially slowed down due to political considerations in states like California, New York and Illinois. With Democratic states still, on average, significantly less recovered than Republican states (few of which have lower unemployment rates today than before the pandemic), continued job gains among these can be expected. latecomers based on the positive effects of their full reopening.

The question will be what happens when they narrow the gap further as their cycle of employment recovery matures. That will be when we find out whether Biden’s policies are net job creators or negative for the economy. And I don’t think anyone in the Biden administration would bet that he would beat Trump’s record 3.5% unemployment rate anytime during his four years in office.

So, as they congratulate each other, they, like the president himself, have no idea how they got to where they are and no plan to free the economy from the private sector to support the natural recovery of the economy. the job in which they were lucky.



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