COT Weekly Report Net USD long exposure fell to 6-month low


From Tuesday 8and February 2022:

  • According to data compiled by IMM, traders were net long $7.5 billion, down $-2.7 billion from the previous week.
  • Traders increased their net short exposure to the AUD by 5.9k contracts
  • Net long exposure to euro futures hits a 25-week high

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Read our guide to how to interpret the weekly COT report

USD positioning:

Overall net long exposure to the US dollar fell to a 6-month low last week and fell for the fourth week in a row. Additionally, it was down -26% from the previous week. This goes against the fact that the Fed will soon embark on an aggressive path of rate hikes, although it fits well with our view in the 2022 outlook that commodity-linked currencies may well perform from the second quarter after a weak start to the year.

20220214cotUSDfx

Futures contracts in AUD:

The bears are moving back towards the Australian dollar, with gross shorts up 4.4k contracts and gross longs down -1.5k contracts from the previous week. And despite a hawkish Fed, the RBA remains staunchly dovish after saying in its quarterly SOMP that it was “ready to be patient”, so there’s apparently no reason to expect these bears to close from so early.

20220214beefyFX

From Tuesday 8and February 2022:

  • Gold Bears Removed -11,000 Short Contracts Before Last Week’s Bullish Breakout
  • Traders reduced gross long positions in silver futures for a third week, pushing net long exposure to a 17-week low
  • Net long exposure to platinum futures fell -2,800 contracts, mainly driven by an increase in gross short sales.

20220214cotGOLDfx

Gold Futures:

The close of 11,000 contracts effectively reversed the previous week’s bearish new bets. 3,600 net long contracts were added, resulting in an increase in net long interest of 15,600 contracts. And the fact that we have since seen gold rally above resistance levels and the breakout of a multi-month triangle strongly indicates the potential that we have seen the corrective low and the bulls remain dominant.

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